An overwhelming majority of American voters feels that the country is on the wrong track and the economy will be a primary factor in November’s midterm elections, a new George Washington University Battleground Poll reveals. Seventy percent of likely voters nationwide agreed with the statement that the nation is on the wrong track, while only 21 percent said that the nation is headed in the right direction.
“Though the American public is as divided as it has been all year, as we head into the 2014 general elections the advantage among likely voters is flowing toward Republicans,” noted Christopher Arterton, poll director and GW professor of political management. “Despite the public’s antipathy toward Congress, particularly toward the Republican leadership in the House, President Obama has become a lightning rod for discontent on a number of fronts. Strong majorities disapprove of the job he’s doing on the federal budget and spending (61 percent), in foreign policy (58 percent), on working with Congress (57 percent) and on immigration (57 percent).”
The poll found that the economy is a greater concern to American voters than gridlock in Washington. Twenty-four percent of likely voters stated that the economy is most likely to direct their choice for Congress, outscoring feelings about their member of Congress, President Obama, or the president’s Affordable Care Act.
When deliberating party choices on economic issues, the Republican Party holds a 7-point advantage, with 49 percent of voters expressing greater confidence in its ability to find solutions. The GOP also comes out in the lead on a generic congressional ballot, 46 to 42 percent.
“Republicans hold a 4-point advantage on the generic congressional ballot. In states with a competitive Senate race, Republicans hold a 16-point advantage (52 to 36 percent) on this generic ballot,” said Ed Goeas, president and CEO of The Tarrance Group, which partnered in the poll. “Republicans are getting stronger support on the generic ballot from ‘hard’ Republicans (93 percent) than Democrats are getting from ‘hard’ Democrats (89 percent) and ‘soft’ Republicans are voting a net 16 points stronger for the generic Republican on the ballot than ‘soft’ Democrats are voting for the generic Democrat. All of these measures exceed where the GOP was at this point in the 2010 cycle. By any measure, Republicans are fired up and ready to deliver victories to their candidates in November, with of the strong backing of independent (by15 points) and middle-class voters (by 11 points).”
The poll did discover that Democrats have advantages in other areas of public concern. Voters feel that Democrats are better qualified to stand up for the middle class (52 percent) and represent middle class values (51 percent).
“While Republicans regained a narrow lead in the generic congressional trial heat, Democrats enjoy advantages among a number of electoral constituencies that are on the rise (e.g., women, younger voters and voters of color), as well as important leads on issues and dimensions of leadership central to the economic debate, including standing up for the middle class,” said Celinda Lake, president of Lake Research Partners, another poll partner. “Given voters’ continuing focus on the economy, the component pieces for Democratic wins in November lie at the ready; Democrats must first demonstrate to the electorate in vivid terms, bold policy initiatives and incisive contrasts with Republicans that they are prepared to act decisively to rebuild the middle class and the economy along with it.”
According to the poll, all of the country’s political leaders are viewed by the public with a good measure of displeasure. President Obama’s job disapproval rating came out at 51 percent, while Congress has a 79 percent disapproval rating. A growing majority of voters (58 percent) presently disapprove of the president’s handling of immigration issues.
Expressing genuine upset over the economy, more than two-thirds of voters say their personal economic situation stagnated (35 percent) or worsened (36 percent) over the last four years. Of those whose situation got worse, 34 percent said they are most concerned with having the money to pay bills and the rising cost of daily goods. An improving national economy was the main reason why 29 percent of those surveyed claimed their personal situation has improved.
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